The only game in town : central banks, instability, and avoiding the next collapse El-Erian, Mohamed A.

Table of contents:

Part I: The why, how, and what of this book

• Setting the stage
• The only game in town
• Central banks' communication challenge
• How and why this book is organized

Part II: Context: the rise, collapse, and resurrection of central banking

• The golden age of central banks and "bubblish finance": a brief historical perspective
• Cascading failures
• Central bank resurrection: durable or a dead cat bounce?

Part III: From the what to the so what

• Setting the stage: the ten big challenges
• The quest of a generation: sustaining inclusive growth
• Reducing the risk of the unemployed becoming unemployable
• The inequality trifecta
• The persistent trust deficit
• National political dysfunction
• The "G-O": slide into the "international economic non-system"
• The migration and morphing of financial risk
• The liquidity delusion
• Bridging the gap between markets and fundamentals
• It is hard to be a good house in a challenged neighborhood

Part IV: The desirable way forward

• Addressing the ten big challenges: dealing with willing central banks that lack sufficient tools
• The reduced-form approach to a grand policy design

Part V: From what should happen to what is likely to happen

• When desirable and feasible differ
• Turning paralyzing complexity into actionable simplicity
• The belly of the distribution of potential outcomes
• A world of greater divergence(I): multi-speed growth
• A world of greater divergence (II): multi-track central banks
• A world of greater divergence (III): non-economic, non-policy headwinds
• A world of greater divergence (IV): disruptive innovation goes macro
• Putting it all together

Part VI: The keys to navigating a bimodal distribution

• What history tells us
• Recognizing blind spots and overcoming biases
• Advancing and enhancing cognitive diversity
• Translating awareness into optionality, resilience, and agility
• The power of scenario analyses
• Valuing liquidity and optionality

Part VII: Bringing it all together

In sum

Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most influential economic thinkers and the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of When Markets Collide, has written a roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis. Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choices we face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors--and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector--before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future. Advance praise for The Only Game in Town "Mohamed El-Erian has had an extraordinary career as an investment analyst, investor, and market commentator. His 'new normal' concept was prescient, provocative, and has proven out. Agree or disagree, his go-forward thoughts contained in this bracing book are well worth considering."--Lawrence H. Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Treasury "Achieves the nearly impossible: It takes complex financial issues and events and makes them both enlightening and entertaining. It's a must-read for anyone who cares about the global economy and its future."--Jack Welch "May well be the only book you need to read on how the global financial system works, the serious trouble we may be in, and what to do about it. El-Erian's gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible."--Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America "The job of policymakers is mind-bogglingly hard. Who better than Mohamed El-Erian, with his knowledge of markets, his knowledge of policy, and his brilliant mind, to help organize their (and our) thoughts."--Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics "Today's global economy is beset by low growth and rising inequality. By looking at the tools now being used by the world's major central banks, Mohamed El-Erian shows how we can instead promote inclusive economic growth. This is a must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time."--Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs"-
"Our current economic path is coming to an end. Where we go when we reach this inflection point - toward renewed growth and prosperity, or toward increased malaise and financial chaos - is not pre-destined. It is up to us; to our assessment of the situation and our actions, both as individuals and collectively. Now El-Erian, one of the most influential and highly regarded thinkers in the world, provides us with a diagnosis and roadmap to understanding where we are today, how and why our central banks have become the essential actors in the current global economy, but cannot remain so, and where we can - indeed, should and must - go from here as individual investors, households, economies, societies, and governments"

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